23rd March saw Trump announce talks with Iran via social media and, although perhaps not unusual or suspicious in and of itself, the post, which came just days after the U.S. President threatened to bomb power plants across the country, and was released at 7.04am on that Monday morning, triggering some seemingly unusual activity in the Oil and Gas Market that served to highlight the inherent risks of relying on global markets.

Just 15 minutes before a major U.S. presidential social media post regarding Iran, a single trader reportedly executed a massive $1.5 billion S&P 500 “long” and a simultaneous $580 million oil “short.” 

And, within five minutes of the post going live, Brent crude – the benchmark for our own North Sea oil – crashed by 13%. 

This wasn’t an event driven by geology or consumer demand; it was a geopolitical “whipsaw” fueled by high-stakes speculation and, for the UK, which remains a “price taker” on the global stage, these underhanded bets have a direct “trickle-down” effect on domestic energy tariffs and industrial hedging costs. 

As long as our energy security is tied to global fossil fuel markets, it remains a “bet” being placed on a table we do not control. And if this doesn’t strengthen the national case for increased reliance on renewable energy, what can!? 

Energy That Can’t Be “Shorted”

In stark contrast to Monday’s suspicious oil dealings, UK-produced biomethane and Energy from Waste (EfW) are functionally immune to this type of global manipulation as there is no “insider trading” on the 10.7 million tonnes of food waste collected by UK local authorities; that is to say that you cannot “short-sell” the feedstock of a domestic AD plant based on a midnight tweet or a speech in Florida.

By accelerating the 150–200 new plants required for the 2026 Simpler Recycling mandate, the UK wouldn’t just cut emissions, it would be-risk our economy by detaching us from an especially volatile and vulnerable global market. 

Moving toward a “Bin-to-Boiler” model effectively unplugs our energy security from the global gambling table and brings it home to a stable, predictable, and domestic circular economy.

A Definitive Wake-Up Call For UK Energy

The events of March 23rd serve as a definitive wake-up call for the UK’s energy strategy, proving that as long as our national security is tethered to global fossil fuel benchmarks, our cost of living and industrial stability are little more than secondary variables in a high-stakes international game.

We have reached a point where a single social media post can do more to dictate UK energy prices than decades of North Sea geology. 

However, the “Gas Gap” does not have to be filled with the uncertainty of global speculation. 

By leaning into the 2026 mandate and treating our 10 million tonnes of food waste as the strategic asset it truly is, we do more than just green the grid, we insulate it.

Transitioning to a “Bin-to-Boiler” model isn’t just an environmental choice; it is an act of economic defense and it is time to start investing in a domestic circular economy that – by its very nature – cannot be shorted, gambled, or manipulated. 

The energy of the future is already in our bins; we simply need the resolve to plug it in.